Special Webinar Question: Types of Investment Risk

Posted by Adam Scherer, CFP®, MS

Jun 4, 2020

This question is a part of BIF's Special Webinar series which was created to help students affected by the July 2020 CFP® Exam postponement to September 2020.


A stock has an expected return in 2020 of 8% and a standard deviation of 17%. What is the probability that the actual return will be greater than 25%?

  1. 0%
  2. 13.5%
  3. 16%
  4. 34%

Scroll for answer...

 

 

 

 

Correct answer: C. 16%


Instructor insight:

Plus or minus 1 standard deviation accounts for a probability of 68%, with each (outlier) tail amounting to 16%. In this case, you were asked for the probability of a return greater than 25%, which is the expected return (8%) plus 1 standard deviation (17%). The total probability of the return being greater than 25% is 16%.


CFP® Exam insight:

Write it out! When you encounter a problem in which you are provided with a mean return and standard deviation, then asked to solve for the probability of a certain return, draw a bell curve, split it down the middle, write the mean return at the midpoint, and work outward to identify the standard deviations. From there, apply the probabilities between the appropriate standard deviations to solve.


Related BIF video: Understanding Standard Deviation.

 

Topics: Practice Questions